News

EUR risen strongly in Asia morning trade after Trump tariff announcement sell off earlier

Posted on: Apr 03 2025

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with higher rates for major trading partners, including 34% on China and 20% on the EU.

'Risk' was slammed lower, with yen and gold benefitting.

EUR/USD trade under 1.0820 and has now recovered to above 1.0910 as I post.

This is only going to be a taste of the volatility to come in the hours ahead as more of Asia comes on line and then Europe/UK trade responds. I'd be wary of further upside from here.

Updates:

  • USD/JPY is around 147.90
  • gold is around US$3164
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD: US business activity on the brink – what lies ahead for the market

Posted on: Apr 01 2025

Weakened business activity in Chicago and Dallas could trigger a fall in the USDCAD rate to 1.4260 following a correction. Discover more in our analysis for 31 March 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

  • Chicago PMI: previously at 45.5, projected at 45.5
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: previously at -8.3, projected at -1.7
  • USDCAD forecast for 31 March 2025: 1.4360 and 1.4260

Fundamental analysis

The Chicago PMI is an economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in Chicago’s manufacturing and service sectors. It is calculated by ISM-Chicago based on surveys of purchasing managers.

A reading above 50.0 indicates that the economy of the region is expanding, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction. As a major industrial and logistical hub, Chicago’s performance often reflects broader US economic trends.

The USDCAD forecast for today suggests the Chicago PMI may remain flat at 45.5. If the actual figure matches or falls below that level, it may put pressure on the US dollar and weigh on the USDCAD pair.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index gauges the performance of Texas’s manufacturing sector. It is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on surveys of local manufacturers.

A reading above zero indicates growth, while the one below zero signals a downturn. This index is important as Texas is a key industrial state closely tied to the oil, gas, engineering, and tech industries.

The indicator is used to forecast economic trends in the region and provides valuable insight into business sentiment, order flow, employment, and investment.

Fundamental analysis for 31 March 2025 takes into account that the index may improve to -1.7 from the previous -8.3. Despite the improvement, the indicator remains in negative territory, suggesting that Texas manufacturing remains under strain.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD price formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, it continues its upward trajectory following the signal received. Since the price remains within a descending channel, a correction towards the nearest resistance level at 1.4360 is expected. If the price rebounds from this resistance, a downtrend may develop.

However, the forecast for 31 March 2025 also suggests an alternative scenario, with the price falling to 1.4260 and gaining bearish momentum after breaking below the support level.

Summary

Weak US economic indicators, combined with USDCAD technical analysis, suggest that the pair may continue its downward trajectory once the correction is complete.
The Fed put and the Trump put may both be gone

Posted on: Mar 30 2025

Shortly after the election, markets were in a great mood and it's easy to see why. You had a Republican sweep with the promise to extend current tax cuts and maybe even deliver more. Since then, the tough math on the US deficit has eroded some of that optimism and Congress hasn't moved particularly quick. That's raising some questions on the fiscal front but two other questions loom large.

1) The Trump Put

In his first term, Trump was obsessed with the stock market. Even in the depths of covid, he treated it like a personal scorecard, always bragging about it or blaming declines on others. Ultimately, it led to nice gains throughout his term despite all the usual Trump rhetoric. The Trump put was the idea that he didn't really mean most of the things he said and that keeping stock markets and GDP growth high was the overriding goal. That was the Trump put.

In his first two months in office, Trump 2.0 has been different. Members of his cabinet are talking about a detox and short-term pain. He still references the stock market but is also doing and threatening things that are problematic. The 10% drop in the S&P 500 since February speaks for itself.

I don't think the Trump put is gone but it certainly doesn't look as strong.

2) The Fed put

In his first term, Trump started with relatively low stock market valuations and ample fiscal space. He played that hand well. This time, he arrived with high valuations and a high deficit -- not so pretty. One improvement though was the Fed, the autumn cuts put some juice into the economy but more importantly, with Fed funds at 4.25-4.50%, there was plenty of room to cut. The market was also seeing falling inflation and a long runway, particularly if anything went wrong in the economy.

Now it's less clear that ammunition is available. This week we saw the Fed's Musalem crack open the door to rate hikes, while Daly indicated she was losing confidence in her forecast for two cuts this year. Today's inflation numbers were slightly hotter than expected and there is a growing possibility that the Fed won't be able to cut at all -- even if the economy stumbles. The Fed put might be gone.

Now much of this is Trump's own doing with tariffs but it's illustrative of why stock markets are struggling and could fall further.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Market Quick Take - 28 March 2025

Posted on: Mar 29 2025

Market Quick Take - 28 March 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

  • Equities: US auto tariffs weigh; GM and Ford plunge; Tesla resilient; European autos hit; Asian markets cautious ahead of China PMI
  • Volatility: VIX rises; tariffs spark anxiety; implied volatility elevated; PCE inflation in focus
  • Digital Assets: Bitcoin retreats to $85K; altcoins sharply lower; BTC options expiry critical today; trade tensions dampen risk appetite
  • Currencies: USD weakened on auto tariffs and mixed data
  • Fixed Income: 10-year Treasury yields reverse lower after hitting one-month high
  • Commodities: Gold surged to a record high on trade war worries and momentum
  • Macro events: US PCE Price Index, U. of Michigan Sentiment

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Macro data and headlines

  • US Q4 GDP (QoQ) was revised higher to 2.4%, above the estimated 2.3% while core PCE prices came in slightly below expected at 2.6% vs 2.7% est.
  • US Initial jobless claims remained stable at 224k, with the 4-week average dipping to 224k. Despite storms, claims stayed low, but Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts an increase due to hiring and firing trends. Continuing claims fell to 1.856 million, suggesting a potential unemployment rate drop to 4.0%.
  • The cost of living in Tokyo rose more than anticipated from the previous month, keeping the Bank of Japan on track for further interest rate hikes. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.4% in March, while the overall level of inflation picked up to 2.9% from February’s 2.8%.
  • Investors and traders are cutting back risk ahead of President Donald Trump’s plan to announce so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2, after slapping levies on imports of all automobiles into the country, pondering how the moves will impact inflation and growth in the US economy.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – UK Jan Trade Balance & Feb Retail Sales 1000 – Eurozone March Consumer Confidence 1230 – US Feb Personal Income and Spending 1230 – US Feb PCE Price Index 1400 – U. of Michigan Sentiment

Fed Speakers: Barr (1615) & Bostic (1945)

Earnings events

  • Next week: Constellation Brands, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

  • US: US stocks closed lower on Thursday after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imported autos reignited trade war concerns. The S&P 500 (-0.33%), Dow (-0.37%), and Nasdaq (-0.53%) all retreated amid broad losses led by automakers; General Motors (-7.3%) and Ford (-3.9%) slumped, while Tesla (+0.4%) edged higher benefiting from domestic production. Economic data provided mixed signals, with revised Q4 GDP growth slightly better at 2.4% and initial jobless claims stable, but a larger-than-expected trade deficit adding uncertainty. Futures point slightly lower today as investors await critical PCE inflation data.
  • Europe: European markets dropped Thursday following Trump's auto tariffs announcement, significantly impacting auto stocks. The DAX (-0.7%) closed at its lowest since mid-March, pressured by declines in Mercedes-Benz (-2.7%), BMW (-2.6%), Volkswagen (-1.5%), and Stellantis (-4.6%). Broader European indices also slid, with STOXX 600 (-0.4%) and CAC 40 (-0.5%) affected by trade tensions and potential reciprocal tariffs. Sector-wise, miners and automotive were weakest, while retail saw gains led by Next Plc after positive earnings guidance. Markets remain wary of additional tariff developments expected next week.
  • Asia: Asian stocks mostly fell Friday, extending losses amid escalating US trade tensions. Japan's Nikkei slumped over 2%, pressured by hotter-than-expected inflation prompting bets on a potential BOJ rate hike. Automakers Toyota and Honda (-5% each) led declines due to tariff concerns. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.7%, hit by tech and auto sector weakness, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.9%) retreated on trade worries despite bullish outlook upgrades from Morgan Stanley. China's CSI300 (-0.6%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.7%) also weakened. Investors remain cautious ahead of China's PMI data release.

Volatility

Volatility is rising, with the VIX index closing at 18.69 (+1.96%), reflecting heightened anxiety around new auto tariffs and uncertainty over upcoming reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. Short-term volatility indicators, including VIX1D (+6.09%), signal ongoing market caution. Implied volatility remains elevated, with major indices' IV ranks around 50%, indicating persistent risk sentiment. Markets today focus closely on the US PCE inflation report for further directional cues.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin and altcoins declined Friday amid escalating trade tensions and risk-off sentiment triggered by Trump's auto tariffs. Bitcoin fell 1.8% to $85,690, while Ethereum dropped sharply by 4.4% to $1,916. XRP and Solana also fell more than 3%. Crypto stocks mirrored the downturn, with Coinbase (-2.8%) and Marathon Digital (-1.1%) under pressure. Investors await the $16.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry today, which could significantly influence market direction, especially as bulls aim for prices above the critical $90,000 level.

Fixed Income

  • US 10-year Treasury yields rose to a one-month high on Thursday as the market braced for the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth, only to revert lower after finding buyers around 4.4%. With the 2-year tenor holding steady around 4%, the 2s10s spread has flattened by four basis points to 34. Ahead of next week’s tariff announcements, traders will be focusing on today’s US core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge as well as sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

Commodities

  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a small weekly gain of 0.3%, taking the year-to-date to +8%, with a surging precious metal sector (+3.3%) and, to a lesser extent, energy offsetting broad losses across the agricultural sector as well as industrial metals. On an individual basis, the top performers are silver (+6%), gold (+2.2%), WTI and Brent crude oil (+2.2%), and gasoline (+2.6%).
  • Gold trades at a fresh record high above USD 3,080, supported by momentum and continued demand from investors seeking protection against an economic fallout from an escalating trade war. Silver, meanwhile, trades higher after clearing the $34 resistance hurdle and is currently the best-performing commodity this week, while rangebound platinum’s discount to gold continues to widen, hitting a record USD 2,100.
  • Oil is heading for a third weekly increase, with a potential economic fallout from the trade war being offset by sanctions threatening supply from Iran and Venezuela. In addition, the US has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, moving several B-2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia.
  • Copper prices have finally rolled over, with losses seen in both New York and London as the arbitrage window between the two futures exchanges is closing amid speculation the US administration aims to introduce tariffs within weeks.

Currencies

  • The USD trades nearly unchanged on the week with gains against the JPY on widening yield differentials, MXN and EUR being offset by losses against AUD, CAD and GBP. On Thursday, it weakened after President Trump confirmed auto tariffs starting April 2nd. Mixed economic data showed upward revisions for Q4 GDP and sales, but downward revisions for core PCE prices, GDP deflator, and consumer spending. Focus shifts to monthly Core PCE data.
  • EUR strengthened, briefly reaching the 1.08 level against the softer USD. Tariffs were the focus, with an EU Commission spokesperson stating that the EU is preparing a timely, robust, and well-calibrated response to new import tariffs, though no timeline is provided.
  • GBP gained as the UK is perceived to be less affected by tariffs, although GBPUSD faced resistance near the 1.30 level.
  • USDJPY briefly rose above 151 with the JPY weakening amid a widening yield spread to the US Treasuries, only to edge higher following stronger-than-expected Tokyo CPI data, which likely keeps the Bank of Japan on track for further interest rate hikes
For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.
Saxo Strategy Team
Saxo Bank
Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter
Forex Today: Markets Spooked by Trump Auto Tariff Announcement - 27 March 2025

Posted on: Mar 28 2025

Trump Orders 25% Tariff on All Auto Imports, Says People Will Be "Pleasantly Surprised" on 2 April; Gold Off Record High, But Still Bullish; US Copper Reaches All-Time High; US Final GDP Expected at 2.3% Today

Boeing (BA) Share Price Rally Slows Near Key Resistance

Posted on: Mar 27 2025

The Boeing (BA) stock chart shows that since its March low, the price has surged by approximately 25%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index.
Netflix Wave Analysis – 25 March 2025

Posted on: Mar 26 2025

Netflix: ⬆️ Buy – Netflix broke resistance zone – Likely to rise to resistance level 1050.00 Netflix recently broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 960,00 (former support from February), resistance trendline of the daily down channel from February and.
EUR/GBP Daily Price Action Analysis and Outlook

Posted on: Mar 25 2025

Introduction to EUR/GBP The EUR GBP pair, commonly referred to as “Chunnel,” represents the relationship between the Euro and the British Pound. As one of Europe’s most closely watched currency pairs, EUR/GBP is influenced by economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Understanding the movements in this pair helps traders gauge economic […]

The post EUR/GBP Daily Price Action Analysis and Outlook appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.
Trump revoking legal status of more than half a million migrants: US labor mkt implication

Posted on: Mar 23 2025

This news has been in the works, but the announcement has been made - Trump's administration will revoke the temporary legal status of more than half a million migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela:

  • these migrants have been warned to leave the country before their permits and deportation shield are cancelled on 24 April

More here.

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This is something to watch with respect to the US labour market:

  • many of these migrants have been legally working in the US under the humanitarian parole program
  • the revocation is likely to lead to some short-term disruption (shortages) in the labor market, particularly in industries that heavily rely on immigrant labor, such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare
  • its likely to lead therefore to higher wage costs (higher wages) if basic supply and demand economics holds

There will be flow-on effects such as lower payments made into Social Security and Medicare also.

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Market participants, including the Federal Reserve, will be keeping an eye on the higher costs and other economic impacts. At the margin the impact is likely to be the Fed holding rates for longer, they keep telling us they are trying to assess economic developments as policies flip and flop (tariffs on and off and on and off and so on). If you are a trader it'll pay to keep an eye on developments also.

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The latest from the FOMC:

  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 Mar: Fed keeps rates unchanged. See two cuts in 2025

IKR?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Can a reversal pattern send down Brent prices?

Posted on: Mar 21 2025

Brent prices are strengthening, currently standing at 70.99 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

  • US gasoline and distillate inventories fell to their lowest levels since early 2025
  • The Head and Shoulders pattern on the Brent chart indicates a potential price decline
  • Brent forecast for 20 March 2025: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices continue to rise for the second consecutive trading session. However, buyers cannot surpass the key resistance level at 71.00 USD yet. Brent quotes are supported by US inventory data and escalating tensions in the Middle East, fuelling concerns about possible oil supply disruptions.

Wednesday’s data showed a sharp decline in distillate and gasoline stocks to their lowest levels since early 2025 despite an increase in crude oil inventories. Gasoline stocks decreased by 527 thousand barrels, with distillate inventories down by 2.80 million barrels. At the same time, commercial crude oil reserves in the US rose by 1.75 million barrels last week.

Investors currently continue to assess the prospects for US economic growth. The Federal Reserve reiterated its forecast for two benchmark interest rate cuts this year, which supports the oil market, according to the Brent price forecast.

Brent technical analysis

Brent prices are consolidating in a descending channel, remaining under pressure from sellers. The Brent forecast for 20 March 2025 expects a breakout below the 69.65 USD support level, followed by a decline to 66.65 USD. Technical indicators confirm the bearish scenario, with the price remaining below the Moving Averages and the Stochastic Oscillator approaching the overbought area, indicating a high probability of a downward momentum. In addition, a Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the chart, which increases the risk of a further drop in oil prices.

Summary

Brent price growth is limited by the 71.00 USD resistance level, despite support from the decline in US fuel inventories and expectations of Fed monetary policy easing. The Brent analysis for today indicates that a Head and Shoulders pattern is forming, which, combined with technical indicators, increases the likelihood of a decline to 66.65 USD.